Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Drinking and dining establishments often promote themselves in unique and creative ways. Pictures and videos are always attractive ways of capturing the attention of potential patrons. But there’s still a place for a creative use of words as well. Of course, there’s creative and then there’s, well….

We recently received a WhatsApp invite from one or our favorite drinking establishments that read, in part, as follows: “Join us next Wednesday from 7pm onwards for a special evening featuring guest mixologist Mel Chavez, bar manager at Smoke & Mirrors Singapore which is rated #60 on Asia’s 50 Best Bars 2022.”

Now, we certainly don’t profess to be rocket scientists but, as far as we can tell, being “#Sixty” on the list of “Fifty Best” would, we believe, mean that they didn’t make the list. But it’s all about the spin, right? And look at how well their spin worked – we’re talking about it here, in a blog post, nearly three-weeks after the message was sent. So, bravo to them!

This got us to thinking about “spin”. Which got us to thinking about one of our favorite quotes which has been attributed to everyone from Mark Twain to Benjamin Disraeli; “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Which, in a rather convoluted way, brings us to our blog post today. A look at some wild statistics, along with some explanations of analytical/statistical techniques, that we’ve come across. And numbers don’t lie, right??

Odds of being struck by lightning – 1 in 114,195. Wanted to get this one out of the way first. Because what list of statistics would be complete without it?!

69% of children aged 2-5 can use a computer mouse, but only 11% can tie their shoelaces. And in keeping with this somewhat dismal statistic, more young people know how to play a computer game (58%) than swim (20%) or ride a bike (52%).

8% of people pronounce Wi-Fi as “wiffy”. We don’t know who these people are, but they aren’t well.

Statistics are more prevalent in our day to day lives than many of us even realize. Every time we check the weather before deciding what to wear in the morning, we’re relying on statistics. When our insurance company informs us of the rates we’re going to be charged, they’ve determined those numbers based on stats of all the drivers and homeowners in our area.

Odds of being audited by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service are 1 in 160. Though this number may sound high, don’t panic. This factors in all tax returns filed – including those of corporations. According to Forbes Magazine, “If you earn less than $200,000 annually and don’t attach Schedules C or E to your tax return, statistically speaking, you have a better chance of being abducted by aliens or dating Taylor Swift than being audited.”

It only takes 23 people in the same room for there to be a 50% chance two of them share the same birthday.

Did you know that 73.6% of all statistics are false? Well, no, of course not. It’s a made-up number (even though such a study would be interesting to know – but again, it could have all the flaws it tries at the same time to point out). While numbers in themselves don’t lie, they can in fact be used to mislead with half-truths.

50% of human DNA is shared with bananas. (Maybe this is why so many of us find bananas so a-peeling??).

86% of people admit to cheating at golf. Which goes to show that honesty is as elusive as the perfect swing.

And the telling of half-truths is not only limited to mathematical amateurs. A 2009 investigative survey by Dr. Daniele Fanelli from The University of Edinburgh found that 33.7% of scientists surveyed admitted to questionable research practices, including modifying results to improve outcomes, subjective data interpretation, withholding analytical details, and dropping observations because of gut feelings…. Scientists!

Odds of becoming a billionaire? According to Forbes, there are now 2,208 billionaires out there and over 7 billion people on the planet. You do the math.

And did you know that if you made $295,000 every single day since the year zero, you still wouldn’t be worth what Elon Musk is.

When it comes to statistical analysis, there are 7 key types: descriptive, inferential, predictive, prescriptive, exploratory, causal and mechanistic. Each type serves a slightly different purpose, but, like the good marketing tools they can be manipulated to be, they all help the world go round.

Descriptive analysis/statistics summarize data in a straightforward manner. For example: The average human loses 4.5 socks per year in the laundry and spends a staggering 16.8 hours per year searching for them.

Odds of winning the Powerball – 1 in 292 million.

Odds of being born with 11 fingers or toes – 1 in 500. This means that if you follow 1,000 people on Twitter (er, make that “X”), one or two of them were probably born with an extra appendage.

As the name suggests, inferential analysis/statistics allow us to infer generalizations about data and make educated guesses based on limited information. For example: After examining laundry habits, sock-to-machine ratios, and the elusive nature of socks, statistical investigation suggests that missing socks are, in fact, being teleported to a parallel sock dimension.

The human eye blinks about 4.2 million times a year on average.

Dragonflies have a 95% hunt success rate. Making them the most effective hunters in the world.

Predictive analysis/statistics is also pretty self-explanatory, as it’s used to make predictions about future events based on current and past facts and figures. It uses the power of math (with a sprinkling of magic). For example: Based on the SockGone algorithm, there’s an 87.3% chance that your next load of laundry will result in sock separation.

Odds of getting attacked by a shark – 1 in 3.7 million. Even though, when shark attacks do happen, they get all the media attention, it appears that they really hardly ever happen. According to the U.S. National Safety Council, you’re much more likely to die as a result of coming into contact with hornets, wasps, or bees (1 in 54,093) than even being bitten by a shark.

Odds of falling to your death – 1 in 119. We suggest it may be best to fall into the ocean and take your chances with the sharks to avoid adding to this statistic.

Conversely, prescriptive analysis/statistics uses data to determine the best reaction to a situation. Basically, telling you what to do because the numbers said so. For example: Based on laundry dynamics and statistical probabilities of sock escape routes it’s recommended to implement a “sock sanctuary” within the laundry room, complete with surveillance cameras to capture rogue socks in action.

20% of songs on Spotify have received zero plays. There’s actually an app that’s dedicated to delivering the unloved and undiscovered tracks no one has yet played on Spotify. Check out Forgotify here.

Odds of finding a pearl in an oyster – 1 in 12,000. Given that it’s said you need to eat 250 oysters per day to meet daily nutritional requirements, then every 48 days you should be able to find a pearl too.

Odds of winning an Oscar – 1 in 11,500. Of course, the numbers go up exponentially if you don’t actually act in a movie.

Exploratory analysis/statistics aim to explain why particular phenomena work in the way that they do. Essentially playing detective with data ala Sherlock Holmes. For example: Unraveling the mystery of disappearing socks by creating a bar chart showing the correlation between laundry days and sock count.

There are more Panda Express restaurants than actual Pandas. According to recent estimates there are about 1800 giant pandas in the wild compared to 2300+ Panda Express locations.

The US state of Kentucky has more bourbon that people. Now this is a statistic that we absolutely love! Yes, there is enough bourbon in Kentucky to drown all those chickens the Colonel fries up. In fact, there are over eight million barrels of bourbon in Kentucky but only about four million people. Does it get any better than that?!

Causal analysis/statistics assist in determining the reasons behind “why” things occur or appear as they appear. Proving that one thing probably caused another thing (maybe). For example: A groundbreaking study suggests a causal link between eating peanut butter sandwiches and the mysterious disappearance of socks, proposing that socks are accidentally transmuted into lost crumbs.

Odds of dying in a vending machine accident – 1 in 112 million. It’s good to know that death by vending machine is rare, but still…really??

You're also statistically much more likely to end up in the emergency room from a pogo-stick mishap (1 in 175,667 odds) or be murdered in the Grand Canyon (1 in 8.2 million odds).

The official definition of mechanistic analysis/statistics is “used to understand the exact changes in the given variable that can make changes in other variables while having the assumption that a whole system is affected by its own internal elements.” Essentially attempting to understand how things work, with a side of geekery. For example: After delving into the physics of vanishing socks our mechanistic analysis posits that missing socks are caught in a quantum entanglement with the elusive ‘lost keys’ particle, resulting in an alternate sock reality beyond the reach of human comprehension.

Odds of being injured by a toilet – 1 in 10,000. Curiously (or maybe mercifully), the head or neck was the most common primary part of the body injured. If you’d like more information on how to avoid death in the bathroom, you can read the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s report about nonfatal bathroom injuries here.

And speaking of toilets, did you know that Americans use 36.5 billion rolls of toilet paper annually? Ass-wiping is taken for granted, as is the paper which does the wiping. But the numbers behind this are pretty staggering since it means Americans use about 1/5th of all the toilet paper in the world, while making up only about 4% of the global population. According to research, if everyone decided to go for the refreshing spritz offered by a bidet, it would save 15 million trees per year. That's something. And if you're thinking that at least you're not wasting as much water as a bidet, you'd be very wrong. Making one roll of toilet paper uses 37 gallons of water during the production process. That's about 473.5 billion gallons a year. Those ass squirts use just 1/8th of a gallon.

The world of statistics is an intriguing realm that moves numbers and narratives in a myriad of different ways. Just as the creative use of words and manipulation of numbers can entice patrons to a drinking establishment, statistics can shape and color our understanding of the world around us. And while numbers themselves might not lie, they can certainly be bent to mislead.

So, is any of this for real? We guess it’s up to you to be the judge if we’ve just made all this up or not. But truth be told, we really do think everything we shared with you today is factual. Because we accumulated all this information and all these numbers from the internet. And the internet doesn’t lie. Right?

Finally, on a separate note, we know that we have at least one loyal weekly reader of this blog post who is a resident of Lahaina, Maui. We’re very glad to know that she and her home made it through the fire safely, but our thoughts go out to everyone there during this difficult time. We hope today’s post brought a smile and helped to lighten the load just a bit.

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